In this blog i will be summarizing/analyzing pages 202-end of How Randomness Rules Our Lives. In this section Mlodinow describes the very complicated idea of assymetry. Basically you cannot predict what will happen when you are in the midst of doing something but after the fact it is exceptionally easy to criticize and say that you should've known better. Mlodinow gives many examples for this law. Such as the stock market, when you look at a chart of the most succesful managers ranked in order from most profitable to least, an analyst can saw why some did good while others did bad. However that same analyst cannot predict beforehand which managers will do good and which will do bad. This is why statistics is so important in everyday life. Because given this scenario we would be able to tell which managers would have a higher probability of doing better beforehand but we can never be 100% sure. So there is always risk and the study of statistics/probability is greatly needed to succesfully interpret the data without completly screwing up. As Mllodinow says, "i was warned not to think that i could predict or control the future" (218). Mlodinow clearly shows us that the future is a thing that cannot be predicted but can be anticipated and be prepared for.
As for pearl harbor even though the U.S. had extensive reasons to believe that Japan was preparing for an attack, why would we think pearl Harbor? The japanese had ordered their spies to do the same thing in numerous places all over. And the probability that they would attack Pearl Harbor was just an insignificant amount, however that amount still exisited therefore allowing for it to happen. "Blame is always passed around in unfortunate events" (208). Mlodinow shows readers through the 3 mile island melt down that when chance is involved and negative things happen people are allways forced to take the blame. The truth is that the 3 mile island nuclear reactor was up to date and working fine, but unfortunatly it recieved a water leak that turned of the cooling system of the reactor which enable the backup system to start which had been turned off by a janitor. So it really the janitor's fault? No it is all chance's fault.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
It's so weird that if one janitor hadn't turned off the cooling system, Pearl Harbor could've gone totally differently. It seems that every incident that happens is because of an unending series of tiny things that go wrong, so it is impossible to blame anyone for bad things that happen. Since there are so many things that I have absolutely no control over, I find it so much easier just to not worry about the future and let what is going to happen happen.
I completely agree with you that it is very easy to look back on an event and criticize others and oneself. Everyone does it and it's often the case that when we do criticize ourselves, we take valuable time away from our lives. We must not do this because, like you said, almost everything that happens in the world is because of chance. On the other hand, that is not to say that we cannot blame others for certain events. In some cases, someone is clearly at fault for the outcome of a situation.
Post a Comment